Singapore is Expected to Approve a Trial of Self-Driving Taxis in the City

Posted on April 6, 2016 by Curious Cat

Singapore is expected to again show that their government can be quite innovative and action oriented. Singapore plans to allow a trial of self-driving taxis on Singapore’s roads.

A Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART) is a research consortium that’s applied to run the driverless taxi pilot project on the normal public roads in Singapore.

Singapore Is Already Planning for a Future of Driverless Taxis

the basic idea will be that people can book a driverless ride via a smartphone. Initially service will be limited to the “one-north” district of Singapore, a massive business park full of biomedical, digital media, and technology companies. The first round of rides will be free, he says, and might be restricted to “one-north” employees.

Frazzoli says SMART was the first applicant for the trial, and hopes to get its testing permit soon. When approval does arrive, the consortium plans to role out a modest robotaxi trial in “one-north” within about six months. But Frazzoli believes Singapore has much bigger plans for driverless cabs; he thinks officials will broaden the program to the whole city-state within about a year.

Driverless cars really seem to be expected, by those who should know, to be on the roads much sooner than I ever thought possible. It is great to see Singapore leading in this effort. This is exactly the type of thing Singapore needs to pursue to continue to succeed economically.

Singapore Polytechnic Circa 1970

Posted on March 16, 2015 by Curious Cat

photo of Singapore Polytechnic in 1970

Photo of Singapore Polytechnic in 1970 by Bill Hunter. My father was a professor at the University of Singapore then.

See more photos he took from his travels around the world.

It is amazing how well Singapore has done economically in the last 50 years. People forget Singapore was poor in 1970. One of the very smart things they did back then was making eduction and higher education a priority. Bringing in people like my father to teach engineering and economic development is one of the many smart moves Singapore made.

The most recent international grade school for both math and science achievement scores put Singapore at the top of all countries. The National University of Singapore was ranked one of the top 150 research institutions in the world.

Taxis Vanish in Rain as Singapore Gets Congested

Posted on September 20, 2013 by Curious Cat

I have found he taxi situation in Singapore to be poor. It is tolerable if it doesn’t rain, but even without rain is it not good (it is just too hard to find a taxi and waits are too long), not up to what I would expect from Singapore. Also the subways have become very overcrowded and again not up to the standard for convenience I expect from Singapore.

The root of the transportation problems are excessive population growth without the necessary infrastructure improvement. I think it has been a mistake to grow so much, but if the rapid growth is going to be the policy then the transportation infrastructure should have been managed much better. The rapid growth has many negative impacts beyond transportation: rapidly rising costs, changing culture with huge influx of foreigners, overcrowding, etc..

Taxis Vanish in Rain as Singapore Gets Congested

At 6 a.m. one weekday morning, 64-year-old taxi driver Koh Chia Hock set out to ply Singapore’s roads when it started raining. So he turned around and went home.

“If I go and fetch a customer, it’s very risky,” said Koh, as the heavy traffic raises the chance of an accident that could leave him without earnings while the car is repaired. “I don’t have the stomach for it. I don’t want to drive when it rains.”

Cab drivers like Koh are avoiding the traffic jams that have become a hallmark of Singapore’s tropical rainstorms after a jump in the city’s population and a surge in vehicles clogged roads.
…
“There are too many cars,” said taxi driver Koh, who says it takes twice as long to get to the city center than when he started driving cabs a decade ago. “It’s not that there are too few taxis, it’s just that if they are not occupied, they are caught in jams.”
…
The government’s Land Transport Authority says the average waiting time for a taxi in the city center during peak hours in March was 4.1 minutes and average traffic speed in the central business district in 2012 was 28.6 kilometers per hour (18 miles per hour).

Paul Barter… “Averages are very misleading,” said Barter, who has lived in the city-state for 12 years. “Things are not quite as bad as some people have been saying, they’re not quite as rosy as the government has been saying.”

What is happening is not surprising if it wasn’t Singapore; for most locations government mis-managing things is common. but Singapore has done so well for so long that when an aspect of government policy is implemented in a way that is just a bit better than an average (for most governments) it is very disappointing. Basically, Singapore has set expectations that the government will manage things very well, failing to do so is disappointing even if the results are really better than most places. This failure is really about the policy decisions to grow the population so much, so quickly, in my opinion. The transportation failures are a result of that policy, without that course of action transportation likely would be in good shape.

Singapore Housing Market Predicted to Cool in 2013

Posted on November 15, 2012 by Curious Cat

Singapore Curbs to Slash Home Sales in 2013

Singapore home sales may fall as much as 27 percent in 2013 after climbing to a record this year as six rounds of housing curbs by the government crimps demand, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Predictions are often incorrect. It does make sense to me that the repeated attempts by the Singapore government to cool the housing bubble will have an impact. But we will have to see what really happens. I do think Singapore is acting sensibly. If anything they waiting too long to take some of these actions (decreasing leverage is one of the best moves to make, which they have done).

The Singapore economy is forecast by the government to expand 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent in 2012, from 4.9 percent in 2011. The economy “slowed discernibly” in the past two quarters and will grow at below-potential levels for a second year in 2013, the Monetary Authority said Oct. 30.

You have to like government-speak (though even some investment predictions make such unclear statements) – “will grow at below-potential levels.”

The recent booming residential real estate market in Johor Bahru, Malaysia (a suburb of Singapore) is being fueled by Singapore’s wealth and the curbs in Singapore. The economic prospects for Johor Bahru are very positive. Still I think the Malaysian government should be adopting measures similar to Singapore’s. The best measure would be to reduce the leverage allowed. Require 20% down (even for condo units under construction). There is a huge supply of high rise condos to be delivered between 2014 and 2017 and those purchasers are putting very small amounts down. This is the type of situation that exacerbates bubbles.

Singapore Housing: Most Expensive and Most Affordable?

Posted on July 2, 2012 by Curious Cat

Singapore Homes Most Affordable As Rents Climb

“The clincher in Singapore is that monthly installments toward repayment of your loan are lower than what you would pay in rent,” said Anantharaman, a private banker at ICICI Bank Ltd., who took out a S$1.04 million mortgage for his S$1.3 million property late last year. “It’s one of the few countries in the world where that is possible,” because of the low interest rates, he said.

Homebuyers like Anantharaman are taking advantage of mortgage rates at an all-time low in the Southeast Asian island- state, even as prices are almost at a record high and the government introduced measures to cool the property market. Home affordability in Singapore has risen to the highest in a decade because of historically low interest rates and flexible payment options available to buyers, according to Jefferies Group Inc.

It was just the last post where I wrote about policies Singapore is taking to slow the rise of housing prices. Mortgage rates are a huge issue. If Singapore wants to slow the rising prices they should not allow variable rate mortgages. They also should consider eliminating mortgages over 30 years. The price might be what economist pay attention to but those looking to buy a place to live mainly look at their payment (the price is of some concern but not nearly as much as the payment). Super low rates greatly increase the price people can pay while keeping a low payment. 40 year mortgages also decrease the payment (though really not that much at super low rates).

Anantharaman, 29, pays 55 basis points over Sibor on a 40- year mortgage, effectively giving him a home-loan rate of less than 1 percent. By contrast, mortgage rates in India, his home country, are about 11 percent, according to Rajan Tandon, the Singapore-based head of Housing Development Finance Corp., the largest home-loan provider in India.

Mortgage rates in Singapore are the lowest in Asia, followed by Hong Kong, said Sanjay Jain, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Hong Kong. His analysis does not include Japan.

Hong Kong’s average mortgage rate is about 2.15 percent, while China’s is 7.43 percent, according to Barclays Plc. Indonesian rates range from 8 percent to 10 percent while in South Korea they are about 5 percent, according to the bank.

In New York, the $1.1 million median price of a condominium makes renting a better option, with the median monthly rent of $3,100. The average rate for New York 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 4.24 percent this week, according to Bankrate.com. Using those numbers, the monthly payment for a mortgage would be more than $4,500.

It doesn’t seem possible to me that the Singapore rate is a 40 year fixed rate. If it is the lenders are crazy (and likely to have huge problems). Instead it is likely a variable rate in which case the borrowers could be in for some real problems when interest rates increase. Calculating things at 1% gives extremely faulty views of affordability (using a variable rate mortgage).

If you are very certain you will move before 5 years (selling your property) variable rate might make sense. If you plan on owning for the long term, variable rate mortgage do not make sense, in my opinion. The super low rates we have not are only a matter of the governments trying to bail out the bankers and cope with the catastrophic problems created by the banking/credit crisis. The unsustainable rates might well last a couple more year (or might not) but the odds of them being here 5 years from now are vanishingly small.

Singapore Taxes Increase In Attempt to Cool Condo Prices

Posted on April 24, 2012 by Curious Cat

Singapore ‘Shoebox’ Condo Sales May Prompt Extra Taxes

Singapore has been attempting to rein in prices since 2009, when the government barred interest-only loans for some housing projects and stopped allowing developers to absorb interest payments for apartments still being built.
…
Sales have risen as developers offer smaller units, according to CBRE Group Inc. The median size of apartments declined 24 percent to 667 square feet in the quarter ended March from the previous three months while the median price slid 18 percent to S$786,340, it said.

Foreigners and corporate entities have to pay an additional 10 percent stamp duty following measures introduced in December. The extra levy is 3 percent for permanent residents purchasing a second home and for citizens buying their third residential property.

The next round of cooling measures will be targeted at curbing investment demand from Singaporeans, CLSA, a unit of Credit Agricole SA, said in a report dated April 17. The evidence of strong investor demand can be seen in the overwhelming response to “shoebox developments,” according to the CLSA report.

“We believe the government could potentially introduce further cooling measures should the positive trend persist,” analysts Melinda Baxter and Xin Yan Low at Merrill Lynch said in a note to clients dated April 16.

The measure Singapore is taking are fairly strong. It is sensible to try and prevent extremely high prices. Singapore is already on of the most expensive places to live. It seems to me these measure are wise. And taxing foreigners is always a nice thing to do if you can get away with it (and Singapore can).

Another way to cope with the real estate demands in Singapore is to make it more possible to move into Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Singapore and Malaysia have been working on strengthening ties and economic cooperation. There is even talk of extending the Singapore MRT into Johor Bahru before the end of the decade. Those talks are still pretty speculative (though senior members of both governments have expressed support for the goal).

Singapore’s Strong GDP Growth Prompts Rise in Singapore Dollar

Posted on April 13, 2012 by Curious Cat

Singapore GDP Rebounding Prompts Faster Currency Gains

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 9.9 percent in the three months through March 31 from the previous quarter, when it dropped 2.5 percent, the Trade Ministry said today. The median of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg survey was for a 6.8 percent gain. The central bank, which uses the exchange rate to manage inflation, said it will increase “slightly” the slope of the currency trading band and raised its inflation forecast.
…
The Singapore dollar rose 0.4 percent to S$1.2491 against its U.S. counterpart at 1:05 p.m. local time today. It has gained 3.8 percent this year. The benchmark Straits Times Index added 0.7 percent.

The central bank also said it is restoring a narrower policy band for the currency, while maintaining a “modest and gradual appreciation.” It widened the trading band at its October 2010 policy review.

Obviously Singapore has a fairly rare situation with such limited space and a very strong economy. That leads to pressure of inflation as the wealth chases a somewhat limited supply (this is mostly focused on land – but that impacts many things). Given the large amount of international trade Singapore does one way to manage inflation is to let the Singapore dollar rise.

Many countries seek to lower the value of their currency to make it easier to compete globally. Singapore’s leaders have figured out that they wish to raise the standard of living by successfully providing very high value products and services.

Instead of seeking to compete by lowering the value of their currency they seek to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of their businesses. This is a great model. It is a challenge when businesses want easy quick fixes (decreasing the value of the currency is an easy quick fix that helps business – though it also less noticeable hurts individuals).

Singapore seems to acknowledge that their currency is going to increasing strengthen against other currencies. They just expect their businesses to improve enough to remain competitive even as this happens.

Singapore and Iskandar Malaysia

Posted on January 15, 2012 by Curious Cat

Singapore’s economic development foresight has been tremendous for decades. Economic development is something where you need to think of the long term. Then you see what routes are available to get there you to the goal. Each country and area has different strengths and weaknesses and those need to be worked with and improved to develop most effectively. What will benefit Singapore 20 years from now is not the same thing that benefits them today. And what worked to boost the economy in 1970 and 1990 are not the same strategies that will work today. This is especially true when your economy is rapidly evolving (as Singapore’s is).

To maximize today, you cater to those currently in power. But to prosper over the long term you need to think ahead. The economic landscape changes rapidly (compared to lifetimes). Look at the Singapore of today versus that of 1970 and 1990. Look at China today versus 1990.

Clayton Christensen has one of the few essentially new management ideas in the last few decades (usually management authors just rewrite old ideas and sell them as new. He has several books on the Innovators Dilemma. It is essentially about how new products and services destroy old profitable businesses. You can chose to hope and fight against it, but it won’t work (see people like the entertainment and publishing industry today – fighting against technology just like they fought against videotape then DVDs… they are just incapable of understanding business). Smart businesses will seek to disrupt their own, current profit centers. Because if they don’t someone else will. But this is hard. Christensen has an excellent book on this: The Innovator’s Solution.

Singapore’s situation is very much like this, I believe. And the government seems smart enough to realize this (which is very rare for governments). Singapore knows the world continues to evolve. And hoping that the economy they have today will just be fine 20 years from now is not going to work. They need to be willing to lose some things today to prepare for tomorrow. It will be messy and certainly political pressure will interfere. It is harder to do at the government level than at a corporate level (and most corporations can’t do it). But I believe, Singapore understands they build the most economic prosperity and stability by partnering with Iskandar and Indonesia incredibly closely. And also partnering with China… Iskandar is the economic development zone in Malaysia, just over the straits from Singapore (connected by 2 bridges).

So I am betting Singapore will make the smart short term moves that means some losses today but great gains over the years. Malaysia is in the nice position today that they will really both gain today and gain tomorrow. It isn’t often you get to enjoy that. There will be some special interests who might lose in the short term or, more likely, might think they are not getting enough of the current benefits and want more. But essentially Malaysia’s trade offs are easy. Singapore’s will mean disrupting current profit centers. But they don’t really have a choice. If they just try to ignore the realities then Malaysia and Indonesia and Vietnam and India and China will disrupt those conditions Singapore currently benefits from and Singapore will not only lose what they have today, but not be in place to benefit from what can be created from the disruption.

Don’t Leave Your Dreams Hidden Away, Make Them Come True

Posted on October 20, 2011 by Curious Cat

Great post by Benny Lewis on why why you (yes, you) can be live overseas and travel. Benny, from Ireland, has been traveling for 8 years now and started with no cash. Another of his posts explains why you don’t have to be rich to travel the world.

This isn’t the life for everybody, but if you want to do it, you can. The challenge is mainly being willing to accept the challenge. I certainly would put the difficulty below what most of our ancestors faced in their lives. At least for me, right now the nomad part is a bit too much. But if you want to give being an expat in Singapore, go ahead and try. Or if you are in Singapore and want to try elsewhere, do that.

Everyone just wants validation, love, security, enjoyment and hopes for a better future.

I believe this. Not only across cultures but across generations. Quit all those posts about generation x,y,z, a, b,c. He has many great points:

Deferring your happiness to the future is a terrible idea…
Spending time exclusively with people who agree with you on everything would never challenge you and allow you to learn so much more…
There’s no shame in saying “I don’t know”…
The Internet is the greatest tool ever available to us, but daily use must be capped…
Don’t take anything for granted. I couldn’t afford to pay for accommodation one night and had to sleep outside on a rock because of it. Ever since then I appreciate having a bed, couch or hammock, no matter how small or where it may be, because I know what it’s like to not have one…
Make sure that every day you have someone (family, friends, lover) to remind you that you are special. If you postpone this part of your life until later, after you get or do that thing you want to do, you will continue in that lonely path indefinitely…

Lots of great stuff. Ok, he is just crazy on some things like capping the amount of internet use; unless he means capping it at about 20 hours a day 🙂 Seriously read this entire post. And think about taking on the challenge of living abroad. It isn’t the easiest thing to do. But our lives our not very long. The value this can bring to your life is huge.

I lived in Singapore and Nigeria as a kid and travelled a great deal with my family. It was wonderful. It was also a big pain at times and I sure complained about it. Now I am living in Malaysia and looking at Singapore out my window. Getting settled has been a bigger hassle than I imagined but I am very happy. And I look forward to traveling around: Singapore, Thailand, China, India, Australia…

Finally, living overseas is not going to be something a majority of the people reading this blog do (your kids though, I think a majority may well live outside your country for more than 5 years of their lives – the world is changing). Most of these ideas can be applied in a life where you live right where you are now.

Strong Singapore Dollar

Posted on August 30, 2011 by Curious Cat

The Singapore dollar has been very strong. This is a sign of a strong economy. But it also brings challenges for an economy when its currency appreciates. Competing against companies internationally is more difficult as those wishing to buy Singapore products and services have to pay the increased prices due to the currency appreciation. Often companies will absorb part of the currency increase but that reduce their profit (or forces them to reduce costs – which can mean layoff and reduced pay). Those making Singapore dollars though get the benefit of being able to buy more for the same price – the same S$100 buy 10% more if the currency has risen 10%.

Many countries try to devalue or at least prevent increases in value in their currency as this is often easier for politicians to do than helping move the economy to a new reality. Singapore however has taken serious steps (as you would expect, taking smart economic steps for decades is why their economy is so strong and currency has done so well) to accept that as they will have a stronger currency (especially when they see what Europe and the USA are doing – acting irresponsibly and making it hard to have faith in their currencies).

Here are some charts of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) versus other currencies over the last 12 years.

chart of the Singapor Dollar v. US Dollar 1999-2011

From 1999 to 2011 the Singapore Dollar (SGD) is up 37% v. the US Dollar. And just since January 1st of 2009 it is up 19%.

See the current SGD to USD chart on yahoo. Such a rapid accent in the currency makes it difficult for companies and individuals to react.

From 1999 to 2011 the SGD has risen 11% versus the Euro. Since January 1st of 2009 the SGD has risen 15%.

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